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Wednesday, March 23
Bush Belly-flops on Social Security Destruction Scheme
by
Linda Thieman
on Wed 23 Mar 2005 04:22 PM CST
 Bush Belly-flops on Social Security Destruction Scheme
By Jacob Weisberg, Slate.com
Looks like the fight to destroy Social Security is nearly over. It just wasn't playing in Peoria.
George
W. Bush's plan to remake the Social Security system is kaput. This is
not a value judgment. It's a statement of political fact. In the months
since [Bush] first presented the idea as his top domestic
priority, Democrats in Congress have unexpectedly unified in opposition
to any reform based on private accounts. Several Republican senators
whose votes would be needed for passage are resisting private accounts
as well. And public opinion, which has never favored any form of
privatization, is trending even more strongly against Bush's scheme. At
this point, there's just no way that [Bush] can finagle enough
votes to win.
This
means that Bush is about to suffer — and is actually in the midst of
suffering — his first major political defeat. After passing all his most
important first-term domestic priorities (a tax cut, an
"education-reform" bill, domestic security legislation, another tax cut),
Bush faces a second term that is beginning with a gigantic rebuke: A
Congress solidly controlled by his own party is repudiating his top
goal. It's precisely what happened to Bill Clinton, when Congress
rejected his health-care reform proposal in 1993. As the Clinton
example shows, such a setback doesn't doom an administration. But how
Bush handles the defeat is likely to be a decisive factor in
determining whether he accomplishes any of the other big-ticket items
on his agenda.
The
first question to ask is whether Bush can face up to defeat. Not
whether he can acknowledge defeat publicly: [Bush is reluctant to
graciously admit his screw-ups.] The issue is whether Bush can
acknowledge to
himself that he's belly-flopped on Social Security. If he can't, the
endgame is likely to be fairly ugly for the GOP. Bush will expend more
political capital twisting the arms of senators in a fruitless cause.
(Click here to read the complete article.)
Social Security Trustee Report
by
Chad Thompson
on Wed 23 Mar 2005 01:25 PM CST
 Social Security Trustee Report
From tne NY Times this afternoon, the Social Security Trustees have released their report on the financial status of Social Security and Medicare.
Here's what the report stated:
The
trust fund for Social Security will go broke in 2041 -- a year earlier
than previously estimated -- the trustees reported Wednesday. Trustees
also said that Medicare, the giant health care program for the elderly
and disabled, faces insolvency in 2020.
The
new projections made in the trustees annual report were certain to be
cited by both sides in the massive battle to overhaul Social Security,
which [Bush] has made the top domestic priority of his second
term.
The go-broke date for Medicare was delayed by one year, compared to the estimate that trustees gave a year ago.
Now,
if you have some passing familarity with running "what-if" scenarios
(such as family budgeting) you're familiar with the notion of making
assumptions in the model you use to calculate that budget.
Atrios has a few notes on changing that model.
If the economy is improving by leaps and bounds (as we've heard over
and over - right?), the lifespan of the Social Security Trust Fund
should be increasing. However, according to this report the lifespan is decreasing.
What
this means: evidently, some model assumptions have been changed -
but not to truly 'drastic' effect. (Atrios states that the
changes have largely to do with the mortality tables and slightly
different assumptions about wages.)
To see the effect of changing assumptions, there is a section labeled "Uncertainty of Projections".
Here's the graph, showing three different projections of the solvency of the trust fund:
What
this shows us is that by differing the model projections, there can be
several assumptions made that either exhaust the trust fund, or make it
solvent forever.
The
point here is that the "solvency crisis" rhetoric is far from the truth
and the state of the Social Security system is far from requiring
massive overhauls of the basic structure away from a defined benefit
pension account to a defined contribution 401(k) style savings account.
For those with more time and patience than I have, you can read the entire report here.
Progressive Integration: A Glance Forward
by
Linda Thieman
on Wed 23 Mar 2005 04:05 AM CST
 Progressive Integration: A Glance Forward
by Richard Hoefer
I've
been doing a lot of deep thinking the past five months since the
election, thinking which has become much more focused since Howard Dean
was elected to DNC Chair. A very hopeful sign no doubt, but not a
panacea by any means. A recent set of
meetings I attended in Washington, D.C., reveals to me that the
Democratic Party apparatus is still very commitedly entrenched in a
beltway-centric reactionary cultural mindset. And this rusty
culture expresses itself most visibly by the poll-driven inauthentic
voice of alleged leaders like Nancy Pelosi and John Kerry and Hillary
Clinton and Joe Biden - all of whom turn off and repel 50% of America
just by opening their mouths.
We are
in a terrible crisis, which to me feels worse than the
masterfully-malicious past four years of stagecraft which saw America
succumb to the neo-con message machinery. That well-funded,
think-tanked machinery used multiple channels like Fox News and paid
faux-journalists to seduce 60% of Americans into believing that we
needed to invade Iraq because Saddam Hussein was behind the 9/11
attacks - attacks which for real sent a collective fear shivering up
our country's spine, thus setting off a whole chain-reaction still
playing out today.
The
November 2 election, we all know, has been treated by the neo-cons as
authorization to not only occupy all three branches of government, but
also aggressively bulldoze every progressive gain fought for and won
over the past 30 years.
I
believe that it is virtually impossible for us to be rescued from this
crisis by any kind of reliance on the Democratic Party, even with
Howard at the helm. The Dean movement gave rise to a new class of
citizen activists and strategists, and we are the real frontline hope
to repel this neo-con machinery and push them back into the holes from
which they oozed while America slept.
Over the
past two years, there have been a number of initiatives I have posed to
[activist groups] in one form or another. Some have seen some
implementation, others not. The "shift" for me now is that we cannot
rely upon the formal Dean organization (DFA) to lead us to victory.
They have definitely provided potent ideas - like running and backing
local candidates for office, and they have executed some of their ideas
with great success. But they have failed to galvanize and unite
progressives outside of their sphere. And again, that job now belongs
to "free agent" citizen activists who have been part of multiple
progressive communities, from DFA to DailyKos to True Majority to
MoveOn to Democratic Underground to a host of others.
SUGGESTED ACTION PLAN
RECOMMENDATION:
If you haven't subscribed to DemSpeak, I do recommend it. http://www.DemSpeak.com
is being re-organized, top to bottom, and will probably relaunch in the
next 30-60 days.
DEMSPEAK PORTAL:
Like other portals I have developed over the past two years (DeanPort.com, ProgressiveStart.com), DemSpeak will be a startpage aggregator of all sites and resources surrounding the whole spectrum of Progressive Messaging:
Values
Inventory, Message Identification and Development, Engagement
& Rapport Strategies, Framing and Reframing language, Strategic
Development and Deployment of Frames, Mediaspace Injection
Choreography, and Framing/Media Crossfire training of Capitol Hill
Legislators, new TV spokespersons for progressives, Talk Radio callers,
and progressive leaders.
There
will be a public-face aspect to DemSpeak, and there will be a private
"think tank" layer which is password-accessible only to
thoroughly-vetted citizen strategists.
This will become a vibrant hub which unites and aligns all such messaging initiatives and operations.
CONTEXT NOTE: PROGRESSIVE INTEGRATION PLAN
DemSpeak is one of 6 integrated initiatives which will map out and facilitate alignment within the entire progressive movement.
One of
the other 6 projects will be a completely new launch of a true
cross-organization National Grassroots Network featuring at its heart
the 50-state Clickable Map comprehensive database. This rethink breaks
from a Dean-centric model and expands much more broadly.
A third and critical component is GTV Network – a progressive cable TV network (cable and web).
There is
an overarching strategic component which integrates all 6 initiatives.
If you have a tangible role you've been wanting to play, and have not
known how to best apply your expertise, please contact me at: rh
AT deanport DOTCOM.
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