Battleground: Iowa
By David Moberg, Salon.com

[Iowa's Gov. Tom] Vilsack is optimistic about Kerry's chances in his state. "It's all in the numbers in the early voting and registration war," he said. Iowa is divided into roughly three equal parts politically, but independents have the edge in registration. In 2000, there were about 25,000 fewer registered Democrats than Republicans in the state, but this year Republicans lead by only 8,000. Part of the reason is changing demographics - Iowa is now less rural and more Latino.

"We've become more competitive as Iowa has become more urbanized," Iowa Democratic Party chairman Gordon Fischer said. "Now the 10 most populous counties - with cities like Des Moines, Sioux City, Cedar Rapids, Waterloo and Iowa City - have more population than the ... 89 [least populous] counties."

Most of the voters registered by the party and partisan groups such as unions, the Iowa Citizen Action Network (an affiliate of USAction) and America Coming Together (the leading independent "527" group) are likely to vote for Kerry. But the work of some nonpartisan groups may also indirectly benefit him. The New Voters Project, for example, has registered 36,000 18-to-24-year-olds in Iowa, including 12,000 around Iowa City, home to the University of Iowa and the third largest New Voters Project operation in the country. "We've been getting an amazing response from young people," said organizer Aaron Saeugling. "A lot of people said, 'I didn't vote in the last election, but I am this year.'" Although 70 percent registered as independent, a study by Harvard University's Institute of Politics suggests they will disproportionately vote for Kerry.

The Democratic forces in Iowa have pushed harder than the Republicans for early votes, in both absentee ballots and satellite early polling stations, and the balloting has gone strongly to Kerry. Late last week, Democrats figured that at least 108,000 out of 190,000 early votes went for Kerry, since they came from identified supporters, and 56,000 went for Bush, with the remainder probably split roughly in the same proportion. With a week to go, already 60,000 more absentee ballots have been cast than in 2000.

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