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Monday, October 25
New Voters for Kerry; Bush's Battleground Blues
by
Linda Thieman
on Mon 25 Oct 2004 04:29 AM CDT
New Voters for Kerry
by Ruy Teixeira, Emerging Democratic Majority
A new Ipsos-AP analysis of their poll data shows new voters leaning very heavily toward Kerry.
Among
LVs (likely voters) who are new voters, Kerry is favored over Bush by a
smashing 25 points, 60-35. Moreover, these new voters were twice as
likely to say they'd been contacted by the Kerry campaign (38 percent)
than by the Bush campaign (16 percent).
The Ipsos-AP analysis provides this sketch of new voters' demographics and political attitudes:
New
voters tend to be young (64% are under 35), unmarried (54%), with some
college experience (36%) and holding down a full-time job (63%), often
in the service sector or skilled trades. They say the country is
heading in the wrong direction (68%) and disapprove of Bush’s
performance as [pseudo-]pResident (63%) and his handling of Iraq (65%),
in particular.
Obviously, the more of these voters that show up at the polls on November 2, the better for John Kerry.
 Bush's Battleground Blues
by Ruy Teixeira, Emerging Democratic Majority
A few days ago, I highlighted some recent polls that showed solid leads for Kerry in the battleground states as a whole, states that were split about evenly between Gore and Bush four years ago.
Since then, Democracy Corps has released new data
showing more of the same (a 7 point lead for Kerry in the battleground
states). And Mystery Pollster looks at a substantially wider range of
recent polls and finds Kerry's battleground performance running ahead
of his national performance in every single one. As Chris Bowers points
out over at MyDD, these data show Kerry averaging a 49-45 advantage in
the battleground.
And, not to pile on, but check the latest unemployment data from the battleground states. Not a pretty picture, by and large, for BC04: Wisconsin and Iowa show increases in their unemployment rates in the last month and Ohio's remains stubbornly high at 6 percent.
Friday, October 22
Latest Iowa Job Count Falls Short as Bush Takes Credit for Iowa Economy
by
Linda Thieman
on Fri 22 Oct 2004 11:03 AM CDT
 Latest Iowa Job Count Falls Short as Bush Takes Credit for Iowa Economy
Iowa Policy Project
Even With September Increase, Iowa Job Performance Disappoints
MOUNT VERNON, Iowa
(Oct. 21, 2004) – An increase in the number of nonfarm jobs in
September is encouraging, but the economic recovery in Iowa continues
to be weak, analysts said today.
Iowa’s
nonfarm payrolls expanded by 1,300 jobs in September 2004, according to
data released Thursday by Iowa Workforce Development. Government,
construction, and financial sectors each gained 400 jobs.
However,
the unemployment rate increased to its highest level for the year at
4.7 percent. The last time the unemployment rate was higher was July
1992, when it reached 4.8 percent.
“We
always concentrate on job growth,” said David Osterberg, executive
director of the Iowa Policy Project. “That is why we are still
concerned that Iowa has not fully recovered from the 2001 recession.
Iowa has 22,200 fewer jobs than when the recession began in March 2001.”
The
economic recovery continues to disappoint in Iowa. Based on Bush
Administration projections, 41,500 new jobs were supposed to have been
created in Iowa since July 2003, when the federal “Jobs and Growth” tax
cuts were to start having an impact. During that period, however, Iowa
has gained only 16,700 jobs.
“Job
growth has fallen short on all measures,” said Peter Fisher, research
director of the Iowa Policy Project. “Job quality has suffered as well.
The new jobs generally pay less and offer fewer benefits compared to
the jobs lost. Nationally, about 14% of all new jobs have been temp
agency jobs.”
Deepening
the job deficit is the fact that the number of people needing jobs has
increased. Four years of college graduates have entered the workforce
since Iowa began shedding jobs.
Since
the recession ended in November 2001, during what is supposed to be a
period of economic recovery, Iowa has continued to lose jobs. Usually
during a “recovery” jobs are created, not lost. For example, this many
months after the end of the 1990 recession, Iowa had gained 62,300 jobs.
Jobs in
Iowa’s manufacturing and trade/transportation sectors have been
especially hard hit. About 25,500 manufacturing jobs and 12,500
trade/transportation jobs have been lost since the beginning of the
last recession (March 2001). Job gains have primarily been in financial
activities (+10,100) and education/health services (+9,400).
Recent
job figures as well as census projections suggest that temporary agency
jobs are among the fastest growing occupations in the nation. For
full-time workers who have lost a job, however, temp agency positions
do not provide the same stable employment and benefits.
Key numbers following Thursday’s release from the state:
*The
unemployment rate increased from 4.5 percent in August to 4.7 percent
in September, the highest it has been since July 2003. In March 2001,
at the start of the recession, it was 3.1 percent.
*The
total number of unemployed Iowans increased by 2,100, from 74,300 to
76,400. The labor force - people working or looking for work -
decreased over the month from 1,632,600 to 1,630,000.
*Nonfarm,
payroll employment rose from an August figure of 1,450,700 to
1,452,000, an increase of 1,300 jobs. Government, construction, and
financial sectors each gained 400 jobs.
*The
nonfarm employment number is up 11,200 from September 2003, but is
22,200 below the level of March 2001, at the start of the last
recession. It is 200 behind the level in November 2001, when the
recession officially ended.
*From
July 2003 to September 2004, 41,500 jobs were supposed to have been
created in Iowa thanks to the federal “Jobs & Growth” tax cut; that
promise has fallen 24,800 jobs short in Iowa.
More information about Iowa employment trends is available at the Iowa Policy Project website, www.iowapolicyproject.org. The Iowa Policy Project is a non-partisan, non-profit research organization headquartered in Mount Vernon.
Bush Takes Credit for Iowa Economy as Unemployment Rises
Kerry/Edwards Campaign
Unemployment Up for Third Month in a Row Under Bush’s Failed Policies
DES MOINES, IA - The State of
Iowa, Thursday, reported an increase in unemployment for the third
month running, one day after George Bush took credit for "improving"
the Iowa economy. Bush told an audience in Mason City on Wednesday that
the economy is "moving forward."
"I don't know how you can say the Iowa economy is moving forward when,
for the last three months, the jobs picture in Iowa has been moving
backwards," said Senator Tom Harkin.
According to official figures, total employment went down by 4,700 jobs
from August to September. The number of unemployed Iowans in
September was 76,400 - the highest reported level all year.
"It's more proof that George Bush can't solve our problems since he
refuses to recognize them," Harkin said. "George Bush's wrong choices
have harmed Iowa's working families and continue to throw more and more
of them into the ranks of the unemployed."
Under George Bush, America has lost 1.6 million private-sector jobs for
the first time in 70 years. The typical family has seen its income fall
by more than $1,500. Real business investment and exports are both down
under George Bush. And all George Bush has had to offer are excuses and
bad plans that put job creation and the middle class last while
favoring special interests.
Wednesday, October 13
Working Families Get Squeezed in Iowa
by
Linda Thieman
on Wed 13 Oct 2004 04:13 AM CDT
 Working Families Get Squeezed in Iowa
Iowa Fiscal Partnership
Report: One in Four Families in Iowa is Low-Income
IOWA CITY - One in four Iowa families is low-income, earning less than $36,784 for a family of four, according to a new national report.
“Work should pay better than that,” said Elaine Ditsler, research associate for the Iowa Policy Project (IPP), who noted other findings of the report.
“When one-third of Iowa children in working families are in low-income homes, we should be concerned about addressing their needs. When almost half of minority working families are low-income, how can anyone be satisfied with that?”
The report also found that working families face uneven income conditions state-to-state, with Iowa ranking about in the middle on several measures.
“Average is not good enough for Iowa,” Ditsler said.
The report was conducted as part of the Working Poor Families Project, supported by the Annie E. Casey, Ford, and Rockefeller foundations. The report spotlights issues confronting low-income working families and makes several recommendations to improve their economic standing.
Ditsler reviewed the report for the Iowa Fiscal Partnership, a joint effort of the IPP and the Child & Family Policy Center in Des Moines.
Ranking states from first (best) to 50th (worst), the report, “Working Hard, Falling Short,” found Iowa:
--Ranks 25th nationally in the percentage of working families that are low income (1 in 4) and 19th on the percentage of children that live in low-income working families. One out of 3 children in working families lives in a low-income family.
more »
Tuesday, October 12
Working for a Pittance
by
Linda Thieman
on Tue 12 Oct 2004 01:04 PM CDT
Working for a Pittance
by Bob Herbert, New York Times
Coming this week are the results of a new study that shows - here at home -
how tough a time American families are having in their never-ending
struggle to put food on the table and keep a roof over their heads. The
White House, as deep in denial about the economy as it is about Iraq,
insists that things are fine - despite the embarrassing fact that Bush
is on track to become the first pResident since Herbert Hoover to
preside over a net loss of jobs during his four years in office.
The
study, jointly sponsored by the Annie E. Casey, Ford and Rockefeller
Foundations, will show that 9.2 million working families in the United
States - one out of every four - earn wages that are so low they are
barely able to survive financially.
"Our
data is very solid and shows that this is a much bigger problem than
most people imagine," said Brandon Roberts, one of the authors of the
report, which is to be formally released on Tuesday. The report found
that there are 20 million children in these low-income working families.
...The
median income for a family of four in the U.S. is $62,732. According to
the study, a family of four earning less than $36,784 is considered
low-income. A family of four earning less than $18,392 is considered
poor.
(Click here to read the complete article.) Free registration required.
Friday, October 8
Tonight's Debate: More Tough Questions
by
Linda Thieman
on Fri 08 Oct 2004 02:09 PM CDT
 Tonight's Debate: More Tough Questions
American Progress
Bush has been preparing for
tonight's townhall-style debate for the entire campaign. At 19 "Ask
pResident Bush" events, he has fielded probing questions from an
audience which – his handlers insist – has not been prescreened. Some
examples: "I was wondering if you would permit me the honor of giving
our Commander-in-Chief (sic) a real Navy salute?" "I was just wondering
what your favorite book is, because I'd like to read it?" "I was
wondering if I could take a picture with you?"
Tonight's questions, however, are more likely to focus on jobs, Iraq, healthcare, taxes and education.
Here is your pre-debate primer on what Bush will say and what you should know.
FACT – BUSH'S JOBS RECORD IS AN EMBARRASSMENT:
Bush will say "the economy is strong and getting stronger." But the
economy added a paltry 96,000 jobs in September, once again failing
even to keep up with population growth. Since Bush took office in
January 2001, the economy has shed about 585,000 jobs. Bush is a lock
to become the first pResident since Herbert Hoover to have a net loss
of jobs over a four-year term.
[Poor Herbert Hoover - to be forever
compared to that junta puppet! What an ignominious end!
I've been to the Hoover Presidential Museum 8 times, and there is much
to admire about the President from Iowa.]
FACT – THE DUELFER REPORT UNDERMINES A KEY RATIONALE FOR WAR: Bush
will say that the recently released report by chief U.S. weapons
inspector Charles A. Duelfer bolstered his rationale for war.
Yesterday, Bush said the Duelfer report proved Saddam Hussein "retained
the knowledge, the materials, the means and the intent to produce
weapons of mass destruction ...and he could have passed that knowledge
on to our terrorist enemies." That claim is highly misleading. The
Duelfer report establishes that Saddam "did not produce or possess any
weapons of mass destruction for more than a decade before the U.S.-led
invasion of Iraq last year." Moreover, Duelfer found "no evidence that
Hussein had passed illicit weapons material to al Qaeda or other
terrorist organizations, or had any intent to do so."
FACT – BUSH'S TAX CUTS WERE A MASSIVE GIVEAWAY TO THE RICH:
Bush will say that his tax cuts "left more money in the hands of
American workers so they could save, spend, invest, and help drive this
economy forward." In fact, Bush's tax cuts overwhelmingly benefited the
very wealthy. For example, Americans with incomes averaging $1.2
million per year have received a tax cut of $78,460. By contrast,
households in the middle 20 percent, with incomes averaging $57,000 per
year, have received an average cut of $1,090. One-third of all the
benefits went to the top 1 percent of all earners. Meanwhile, "9.2
million working families in the United States – one out of every four –
earn wages that are so low they are barely able to survive financially."
FACT – BUSH CREATED A $5.2 TRILLION TAX GAP:
Bush will say, "it is the job of a pResident to confront problems, not
pass them on to future Presidents and future generations." Yet, in four
years, Bush "has turned a $5.6 trillion surplus into $5.2 trillion
deficit." His tax cuts are a big part of the problem. For example, even
as corporate profits have soared 40 percent over the last four years,
tax revenue from corporations has decreased. For more on the
deterioration of America's fiscal situation, read this report by
America Progress's Scott Lilly, mentioned in today's New York Times.
FACT – TORT REFORM WILL NOT SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCE HEALTH CARE COSTS:
Bush will say that the way to make health care more affordable is "by
doing something about these frivolous lawsuits that are running good
doctors out of business and running your costs up." But the
non-partisan CBO has found that even legislation dramatically limiting
the ability of patients to recover damages when their doctor commits
malpractice would lower heath costs by one-half of one percent.
FACT – BUSH LEFT THE FUNDING FOR HIS EDUCATION PROGRAM BEHIND:
Bush will stress the success of the No Child Left Behind program. Keep
this in mind: 1) Bush underfunded the program by $9.4 billion, 2) Due
to funding shortages 11 states will get less federal education money
this year than they did last year, and 3) Because the Bush
administration has "failed to give adequate guidance to help states
comply with the goals of NCLB," twenty-four states have still not
completed plans to fully comply with the law.
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